After winning the US presidential election, Donald Trump announced his intention to annex Canada and Greenland to the United States. If this happens, the consequences could be very severe, especially for European countries.

Greenland itself is of little importance, but its decolonization by Denmark opens up the possibility of doing the same with the Svalbard archipelago - freeing it from Norway. It is very rich in minerals and coal deposits, which are being developed there with estimated reserves of 10 billion tons. The extraction of oil, gas, and rare earth metals are all planned for the future. Svalbard also controls the gateway into the Barents Sea - a Northern Sea Route which is the key to the entire Arctic. Therefore, here the interests of the United States collide with the interests of Russia, which still has its own settlements on Svalbard. 

According to Blick magazine, the Norwegian government takes seriously the threats of annexation of Svalbard by the United States after the statements of President-elect Donald Trump about the acquisition of Greenland.  

A senior Trump aide even confirmed that the "Greenland gambit" is linked to broader geopolitical dynamics, as the United States views Russia as a rival in the struggle for dominance in the Arctic. "It's not just about Greenland. It's about the Arctic. You have Russia, which is trying to become king… These are oil and gas. This is our national security. These are the most important minerals," said Trump’s National Security Advisor Mike Waltz on Fox News. 

Of course, everyone understands that an armed confrontation between two nuclear powers is unlikely. We can see from the experience of recent years that Washington’s weapon of choice against Russia is sanctions. The sale of hydrocarbons, for example, is already limited, but in 2024 the European Union still acquired record volumes of energy resources from Russia. According to various sources, the volume of gas imports from Russia ranges from 16.5–17.5 million tons. Based on estimates from Reuters, Russian exports of liquefied natural gas increased 3% last year exceeding 32 million tons - and about half of the total shipments went to Europe!

The United States even plans to increase its production of liquefied natural gas, which requires new markets and Washington’s looking towards Europe.

Therefore, it would be logical to assume that a clash of interests between Russia and the United States in the Arctic is set to intensify, with the United States likely to impose new, even tougher sanctions. That means serious pressure from Washington on the EU to ditch Russian energy resources for oil and gas from the United States, which will cost much more for Europeans. Can the European economy, withstand such a blow?